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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<section class="header">
<h1 class="title">Sylvia Klosin</h1>
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<p>
<h5>
<b>PhD Candidate</b><br />
Economics and Statistics,<br />
Dept of Economics, MIT<br />
</h5>
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LinkedIn</a></td>
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<!-- About me -->
<div class="docs-section" id="aboutme">
<h6 class="docs-header">About me</h6>
<p>
I'm currently a Ph.D. student in Economics at MIT, where I'm also part of the Interdisciplinary Ph.D. in
Statistics <a href="https://stat.mit.edu/academics/idps/">(IDPS)</a> program. I received my bachelor's
degree in Economics and Statistics from the University of Chicago in 2017 and completed the <a
href="https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/programs/research-fellows/">Stanford GSB Research Fellows
Program</a> in 2019. My main research fields are econometrics and environmental economics. I work on
adapting machine learning and high-dimensional statistical tools for causal inference, particularly in
panel data contexts. I aim to create methods helpful for applied analysis in microeconomics,
particularly for agricultural and environmental economics.
</p>
<p>I'm on the 2024-2025 job market, and my department website can be found <a
href="https://economics.mit.edu/people/phd-students/sylvia-klosin">here</a>.
</p>
</div>
<div class="docs-section" id="media">
<h6 class="docs-header">Research Papers</h6>
<ul>
<p class="title">Dynamic Biases of Static Panel Data Estimators, Job Market Paper (2024)</p>
<p class="authors">Sylvia Klosin.</p>
<a href="https://klosins.github.io/Klosin_JMP.pdf">[preprint]</a>
<details>
<summary>abstract</summary>
This paper identifies an important bias — termed <it>dynamic bias</it> — in fixed effects panel
estimators
that arises when dynamic feedback is ignored in the estimating equation. Dynamic feedback occurs if
past outcomes impact current outcomes, a feature of many settings ranging from economic growth to
agricultural and labor markets. When estimating equations omit past outcomes, dynamic bias can lead
to significantly inaccurate treatment effect estimates, even with randomly assigned treatments. This
dynamic bias in simulations is larger than Nickell bias. I show that dynamic bias stems from the
estimation of fixed effects, as their estimation generates confounding in the data. To recover
consistent treatment effects, I present a flexible estimator that provides fixed- T bias correction.
I apply this approach to study the impact of temperature shocks on GDP, a canonical outcome where
economic theory points to an important feedback from past to future outcomes. Accounting for dynamic
bias lowers the estimated effects of hotter years on GDP growth by 10% and GDP levels by 120%.
</details>
</ul>
<ul>
<p class="title">Estimating Continuous Treatment Effects in Panel Data using Machine Learning with a
Climate Application (2022)</p>
<p class="authors">Sylvia Klosin and <a href="https://vilgalys.github.io/">Max Vilgalys</a>.</p>
<a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.08789" target="_blank">[arXiv]</a>
<details>
<summary>abstract</summary>
This paper introduces and proves asymptotic normality for a new semi-parametric estimator of
continuous treatment effects in panel data. Specifically, we estimate the average derivative. Our
estimator uses the panel structure of data to account for unob- servable time-invariant
heterogeneity and machine learning (ML) methods to preserve statistical power while modeling
high-dimensional relationships. We construct our estimator using tools from double de-biased machine
learning (DML) literature. Monte Carlo simulations in a nonlinear panel setting show that our method
estimates the average derivative with low bias and variance relative to other approaches. Lastly, we
use our estimator to measure the impact of extreme heat on United States (U.S.) corn production,
after flexibly controlling for precipitation and other weather features. Our approach yields extreme
heat effect estimates that are 50% larger than estimates using linear regression. This difference in
estimates corresponds to an additional $3.17 billion in annual damages by 2050 under median climate
scenarios. We also estimate a dose-response curve, which shows that damages from extreme heat
decline somewhat in counties with more extreme heat exposure.
</details>
</ul>
<ul>
<p class="title">Optimal Insurance Scope: Theory and Evidence from US Crop Insurance (2024)</p>
<p class="authors">Sylvia Klosin and <a href="https://adam-solomon.com/SolomonJMP.pdf">Adam Solomon</a>.
</p>
<a href="https://adam-solomon.com/SolomonJMP.pdf">[preprint]</a>
<details>
<summary>abstract</summary>
Distinct risks are typically insured separately. A single `aggregate' contract that pays more when
many shocks occur simultaneously, but less when positive shocks offset negative shocks, is
utility-increasing absent moral hazard. However, an aggregate contract discourages diversification,
leading to a novel insurance-incentive trade-off. We study the US Federal Crop Insurance Program
(FCIP), where farmers can choose the `scope' of their policy - whether to insure each field
separately, or all fields of the crop as an aggregate unit. Starting in 2009, the FCIP introduced a
large subsidy increase for aggregate insurance. We show that farms that moved to aggregate insurance
reduced crop diversity and irrigation, farmed less and conserved more land, and insured price risk
--- all reducing the diversification of their risks. This increased the variability of farm yield by
14%, raising the fiscal cost of aggregate insurance by about $1.5 billion per year. We derive and
estimate a `Baily-Chetty'-style formula for the optimal contract scope. We find that an aggregate
policy is never welfare maximizing, but that the optimal policy lies partway between separate and
aggregate. More generally, we discuss scope's widespread relevance in insurance design.
</details>
</ul>
<ul>
<p class="title">Bagged Polynomial Regression and Neural Networks (2022)</p>
<p class="authors">Sylvia Klosin and <a href="https://jvivesb.github.io/">Jaume Vives-i-Bastida</a>.</p>
<a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2205.08609">[arXiv]</a>
<details>
<summary>abstract</summary>
Series and polynomial regression can approximate the same function classes as neural networks.
However, these methods are rarely used in practice, although they offer more interpretability than
neural networks. In this paper, we show that a potential reason for this is the slow convergence
rate of polynomial regression estimators and propose the use of bagged polynomial regression (BPR)
as an attractive alternative to neural networks. Theoretically, we derive new finite sample and
asymptotic L2 convergence rates for series estimators. We demonstrate that BPR performs as well as
neural networks in crop classification using satellite data, a setting where prediction accuracy is
critical, and interpretability is often required for addressing research questions.
</details>
</ul>
<ul>
<p class="title">Automatic Double Machine Learning for Continuous Treatment Effects (2021)</p>
<p class="authors">Sylvia Klosin.</p>
<a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2104.10334">[arXiv]</a>
<details>
<summary>abstract</summary>
In this paper, I introduce and prove the asymptotic normality of a novel nonparametric estimator for
continuous treatment effects. Continuous variables, such as environmental factors like temperature
and pollution levels, are frequently studied in economics and often require flexible modeling
approaches. I estimate points on the average dose-response function, which captures the expected
outcome at a specific level of the treatment variable. My approach integrates advanced techniques
from double debiased machine learning (DML) and automatic double machine learning (ADML) to
construct the estimator. A novel debiasing method enhances the theoretical stability and balancing
properties of the estimator. Simulations demonstrate that my estimator outperforms existing methods.
</details>
</ul>
<ul>
<p class="title">Synthetic Differences-in-Differences with Covariates (2024)</p>
<p class="authors">Sylvia Klosin and <a href="https://davidahirshberg.bitbucket.io/">David
Hirshberg</a>.</p>
<a href="https://klosins.github.io/Hirshberg_Klosin_SDIDC.pdf" target="_blank">[pdf]</a>
<details>
<summary>abstract</summary>
We propose a synthetic difference-in-difference estimator that incorporates time-varying covariates.
We incorporate covariates into a high-dimensional least squares with correlated error-in-variables
setting. We use results from this setting to derive conditions under which our synthetic
differences-in-differences estimator is asymptotically normal with estimable vari- ance. Monte Carlo
simulations demonstrate that our estimator outperforms classic synthetic difference-in-differences
in settings where covariates contain information about the outcome. We illustrate the practical
performance of our estimator by studying the impact of subsidy increases on crop insurance choices
within the United States Federal Crop Insurance Program (FCIP).
</details>
</ul>
<ul>
<p class="title">The Long-Term Effect of Childhood Exposure to Technology Using Surrogates (2022)
</p>
<p class="authors">Sylvia Klosin and <a href="https://github.com/muhlbach">Nicolaj
Søndergaard Mühlbach
</a>.</p>
<a href="https://klosins.github.io/Klosin_Muhlbach_Surrogates.pdf" target="_blank">[pdf]</a>
<details>
<summary>abstract</summary>
We study how childhood exposure to technology at ages 5-15 via the occupation of the parents affects
the ability to climb the social ladder in terms of income at ages 45-49 using the Danish micro data
from years 1961-2019. The challenge in estimating this effect is that long-term outcome is observed
over a different time horizon than our treatment of interest. We therefore adapt the surrogate index
methodology, linking the effect of our childhood treatment on intermediate surrogates, such as
income and education at ages 25-29, to the effect on adulthood income. We estimate that a one
standard error increase in exposure to technology increases the income rank by 2%-points, which is
economically and statistically significant and robust to cluster-correlation within families. The
derived policy recommendation is to update the educational curriculum to expose children to
computers to a higher degree, which may then act as a social leveler.
</details>
</div>
<div class="docs-section" id="software">
<h6 class="docs-header">Software</h6>
<ul>
<code>hdm</code> High-Dimensional Metrics (R package).<br />
Based on Klosin and Vilgalys (2022) and others.
<br />
<a href="https://github.com/MartinSpindler/hdm">[github]</a>
<a href="https://klosins.github.io/hdm_panel_example.html">[example code]</a>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="docs-section" id="teaching">
<h6 class="docs-header">Teaching</h6>
<ul>
Environmental Economics (Graduate) - MIT 14.475.<br />
Teaching Assistant, with Professors Jacob Moscona and Ben Olken. Spring 2025. <br />
</ul>
<ul>
Statistical Method in Economics (Graduate) - MIT 14.380.<br />
Teaching Assistant, with Professor Anna Mikusheva. Fall 2021. <br />
</ul>
<ul>
Applied Econometrics (Graduate) - MIT 14.381. <br />
Teaching Assistant, with Professor Whitney Newey. Fall 2021. <br />
</ul>
<ul>
Time Series Analysis (Graduate) - MIT 14.384. <br />
Teaching Assistant, with Professor Anna Mikusheva. Fall 2021 and 2024. <br />
</ul>
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