readme.rmd

---
title: "Fourth down calculator"
output: github_document
---

```{r setup, include=FALSE}
knitr::opts_chunk$set(echo = TRUE)
```

This is the repository for the [Shiny app](https://rbsdm.com/stats/fourth_calculator) and [4th down bot](http://twitter.com/ben_bot_baldwin) introduced in [this piece on The Athletic](https://theathletic.com/2144214/2020/10/28/nfl-fourth-down-decisions-the-math-behind-the-leagues-new-aggressiveness/). 

The code that powers the Twitter fourth down bot [is in this folder here](https://github.com/guga31bb/fourth_calculator/tree/main/bot).

The website and bot use [`nfl4th`](https://www.nfl4th.com/) to calculate the probabilities. Research using the package [can be found here](https://www.nfl4th.com/articles/articles/4th-down-research.html).

## Models

Here is the code that generates the various models:

* [Going for 4th down and going for 2 points](https://github.com/guga31bb/fourth_calculator/blob/main/R/_go_for_it_model.R)
* [Punting and kicking a field goal](https://github.com/guga31bb/fourth_calculator/blob/main/R/punts.R)